Europäische LNG-Nachfrage wird Wettbewerb um neue Mengen anheizen und Handel langfristig dominieren
16. Feb. 2023
London - Europas erhöhter Bedarf an Flüssigerdgas (LNG) dürfte den Wettbewerb mit Asien um ein begrenztes neues Angebot in den nächsten zwei Jahren verschärfen und den LNG-Handel längerfristig dominieren, so der LNG Outlook 2023 von Shell.
Europäische Länder, darunter Großbritannien, importierten im Jahr 2022 121 Millionen Tonnen LNG. Dies markierte einen Anstieg von 60% gegenüber 2021 und ermöglichte, einem Einbruch der russischen Pipeline-Gasimporte nach der Invasion in der Ukraine standzuhalten. Ein Rückgang der chinesischen Importe um 15 Millionen Tonnen in Verbindung mit reduzierten Importen südasiatischer Käufer half den europäischen Ländern, genügend Gas zu sichern und Engpässe zu vermeiden. Europas schnell wachsender Hunger auf LNG trieb die Preise auf Rekordhöhen und führte zu Volatilität auf den weltweiten Energiemärkten.
Mit reduziertem russischem Pipelinegas wird LNG zu einer immer wichtigeren Säule der europäischen Energiesicherheit, unterstützt durch die rasche Entwicklung neuer Regasifizierungsterminals in Nordwesteuropa. Im Gegensatz dazu entwickelt sich China von einem schnell wachsenden Importmarkt zu einem flexibleren Akteur mit wachsender Fähigkeit, den globalen LNG-Markt auszugleichen.
"Der Ukraine-Konflikt hatte weitreichende Auswirkungen auf die Energiesicherheit auf der ganzen Welt und verursachte strukturelle Veränderungen auf dem Markt, die sich langfristig auf die globale LNG-Industrie auswirken dürften", sagte Steve Hill, Executive Vice President für Energiemarketing von Shell. "Es hat auch die Notwendigkeit eines strategischeren Ansatzes - durch längerfristige Verträge - unterstrichen, um eine zuverlässige Versorgung sicherzustellen und Preisspitzen zu vermeiden."
Der Rückgang der russischen Pipeline-Gasflüsse führte zu beispiellosen politischen und regulatorischen Eingriffen, da die Regierungen in Europa versuchten, die Energiesicherheit zu stärken und ihre Volkswirtschaften vor hohen Kosten zu schützen, einschließlich der Priorisierung von LNG-Importen und der schnellen Entwicklung neuer Importterminals.
Im Jahr 2022 zwang die europäische LNG-Nachfrage andere Käufer, ihre Importe zu reduzieren und auf andere Energieträger umzusteigen, was zu mehr Emissionen führte. Hohe globale LNG-Preise führten zu einem Rückgang der LNG-Importe in Südasien, wobei Pakistan und Bangladesch mehr Heizöl importierten, um Engpässe in der Stromversorgung zu minimieren, und Indien mehr Kohle verbrauchte.
im Jahr 2022 erreichte der gesamte weltweite Handel mit LNG 397 Millionen Tonnen. Branchenprognosen gehen davon aus, dass die LNG-Nachfrage bis 2040 etwa 650 bis zu mehr als 700 Millionen Tonnen pro Jahr erreichen wird. Mehr Investitionen in Verflüssigungsprojekte sind erforderlich, um eine Lücke zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage zu vermeiden, die voraussichtlich bis Ende der 2020er Jahre entstehen wird.
Verschiedene neue Technologien zur Reduzierung der Emissionen aus Gas- und LNG-Lieferketten werden dazu beitragen, ihre Rolle bei der Energiewende zu festigen. Zudem konzentriert sich die Industrie zunehmend auf die Entwicklung und den Einsatz von dekarbonisierten Gasen – einschließlich erneuerbarem Erdgas, synthetischem Erdgas, Wasserstoff und Ammoniak –, um in Zukunft eine nachhaltigere Energiesicherheit zu gewährleisten.
Der LNG Outlook 2023 von Shell ist online verfügbar unter www.shell.com/lngoutlook.
Pressekontakt:
Pressekontakt:
Shell Deutschland GmbH
Cornelia Wolber
+49 (0) 40 6324 5290
shellpresse@shell.com
@Shell_Germany
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